RTX Q3 '26

Moments, ranked

1. 109:16 ETQ&A▼ -1.17%

   “So Pratt will be a tailwind to RTX's free cash flow over the next three years.”

   Analyst asked: Chris, I wanted to ask, when you think about the NDAA this year and the right to repair provisions that are in there, and you guys have a big defense portfolio, not just in Raytheon, but also in Pratt & Collins, how do you think about the potential impact of that on the company?

   Management, 6.9x volume, adj. next 5 min: -1.18% raw vs -0.01% sector

   New, abnormal minute +1 min after the statement

   high confidence

2. 209:23 ETQ&A▼ -0.50%

   “No immediate plans on rocket motors.”

3. 308:42 ETprepared▲ +0.34%

   “This strong top-line organic growth was driven by all three channels, with commercial OE up 10%, commercial aftermarket up 16%, and defense up 10%.”

1. +0.12%0:00OperatorGood day and welcome to the RTX third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. My name is Lateef and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Chris Calio, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Neil Mitchell, Chief Financial Officer, and Nathan Ware, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being webcast live on the internet and there is a presentation available for download from RTX website at www.rtx.com.
2. +0.12%0:40OperatorPlease note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net non-recurring and or significant items, often referred to by management as underreported. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risk and uncertainties. RTX SEC filings, including as forms 8K, 10Q, and 10K, provide details on important factors
3. +0.07%1:21Operatorthat could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statement. Once the call becomes open for questions, we ask that you limit your first round to one question per caller to give everyone the opportunity to participate. To ask a question, you will need to press star 1-1 on your telephone. You may ask further questions by reinserting yourself into the queue as time permits. With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Calio.
4. +0.07%1:53ManagementThank you and good morning, everyone. Our continued execution and operational focus enabled us to deliver another very strong quarter of results across RTX. On the top line, adjusted sales were $25 billion, up 12% organically with double-digit growth across commercial OE, commercial aftermarket, and defense. Adjusted EPS of $2.26 was up 56 cents, or 33% year-over-year, including 25 cents from IEPA cost recovery. And free cash flow was again strong at $2.26. The next slide, please. The next slide, please.
5. +0.15%2:27ManagementRTX is now Really good at 21% and strong at $2.1 billion. So overall, we're very pleased with the continued momentum in our operational performance across the company in Q3. We also continue to see robust global demand for our products and services and are very well positioned to meet our growing customer needs across commercial aerospace and defense. we booked nearly $59 billion of awards with a book-to-bill of $4.57, driven by approximately $23 billion for Tomahawk and over $14 billion for AMRAAM as we converted those framework agreements
6. -0.12%3:09Managementinto multi-year production contracts at Raytheon. And earlier this month, we also signed multi-year contracts for SM6 and SM3-1B. We're very pleased with our collaboration with the Department of War on these contracts, which reinforced the need for our highly capable and proven systems, and they will be a significant revenue driver for Raytheon over the next decade. Neil will provide some more details in a few minutes. On the commercial side, we received over $22 billion of new orders in the quarter, representing over 60% year-over-year growth across both OE and aftermarket. Most notably, Pratt announced significant GTF engine orders and commitments, including British Aircraft, Aircraft and Aircraft, and Aircraft and Aircraft and Aircraft.
7. -0.12%3:52ManagementWe've also received a fair way selection of the GTF to power up to 63 aircraft, adding another new GTF operator to its expanding fleet. So far this year, we've received over 800 GTF orders and commitments and have a backlog of over 8,000 engines. And commercial orders at Collins were up over 20% year-over-year, driven by the growing installed base and breadth of its content offerings. So another strong quarter of awards across the company. Okay, let me shift to the current operating environment as we look to close out the year. In commercial aerospace, we continue to see positive trends with increasing OE production rates on key platforms, which is growing our
8. -0.05%4:34Managementinstalled base. For example, Collins' commercial installed base and Pratt's narrowbody-powered fleet have grown mid-single digits year-over-year. In Q3, commercial aftermarket also remained resilient, with 16% organic growth despite global RPKs declining slightly year-over-year. Our MRO, which is the largest commercial aircraft in the world, has been able to meet demand and demand continued to be strong, and engine retirements were in line with our expectations. Additionally, we continue to see strength across business aviation, with global business jet departures up year-to-date. And as a reminder, about 60% of the Pratt Canada fleet has not yet seen a first shop visit.
9. -0.05%5:15ManagementOn the defense side, we remain exceptionally well positioned to meet growing demand given our proven capabilities, regional partnerships, and ability to produce at scale. In the U.S., we're encouraged by the broad support for defense spending, including the need to expand munitions depth and integrated air and missile defense capabilities. And our ongoing discussions with the Department of War give us further confidence that our key programs will remain funding priorities. Internationally, demand is also rising, with defense budgets expected to grow across the European, Asia Pacific, and MENA regions next year, including significant spending by Germany, Poland, and Japan.
10. -0.05%5:55ManagementAcross these regions, we have partnerships with local companies and suppliers that help support the production of key systems, including Patriot, GEMT, Standard Missile, Coyote, and military engines. In Europe, for example, we have over 130 different suppliers that support our production work in that region. And while the U.S. government is currently operating under a continuing resolution, our record backlog provides clear visibility to our sales expectations in the fourth quarter and throughout next year, so our focus remains squarely on execution. Overall, based on our performance to date, we're again raising our full-year outlook for adjusted sales, EPS, and free cash flow.
11. +0.05%6:37ManagementNeil will take you through the details of the third quarter and our updated outlook in a few minutes. But first, let me provide an update on our strategic priorities. I'll start with operational execution. We continue to leverage our core operating system to drive output and productivity across the company. At Pratt, we're making progress across key GTF initiatives. On the GTF fleet management plan, the financial and technical outlook remains on track. PW1100 MRO output was up over 35% year-over-year in the quarter. It is up over 30% year-to-date. Sequentially, we're moving forward with our strategic priorities.
12. -0.17%7:15ManagementA.O.G.s were relatively stable as this MRO output largely offset the expected engine removals from the seasonally high utilization of the fleet during the summer months. We continue to expect A.O.G.s reductions in Q4. We're also pleased that the first GTF Advantage-powered aircraft was delivered to United Airlines and entered into service earlier this month. As a reminder, the Advantage will double the time on wing performance, and we expect the production ramp to continue next year. We're also progressing certification of the Hot Section Plus upgrade package that will bring 90% to 95% of the Advantage time on wing benefit back to the installed base. And we will start incorporating this package into MRO visits early next year.
13. -0.17%7:58ManagementShifting to Collins, we're advancing structural cost actions to support further margin expansion. This includes consolidating operations, increasing manufacturing hours at best cost locations, and reducing overhead layers. Thank you. Enabled by these actions, Collins has delivered double-digit organic sales growth this year while reducing indirect labor headcount. And at Raytheon, we're increasing munitions output as we improve material flow across the supply chain and drive productivity in our operations. Year to date, output across our critical munitions is up over 90% year-over-year, with material receipts at Raytheon up double digits over the same period. Across RTX, we're also deploying AI and digital tools to support the MRO's production and sales growth.
14. +0.45%8:43ManagementWe're also increasing MRO's output across the supply chain and drive productivity in our operations. Year to date, output across our critical munitions is up over 90% year-over-year, with material receipts at Raytheon up double digits over the same period. We're also increasing MRO's output across the supply chain and drive productivity in our operations. For example, through a recent acquisition, Pratt is integrating AI-powered engine inspection software to accelerate borescope analytics. For example, through a recent acquisition, Pratt is integrating AI-powered engine inspection software to accelerate borescope analytics. For example, through a recent acquisition, Pratt is integrating AI-powered engine inspection software to accelerate borescope analytics. Already in use on legacy programs, this capability is being implemented across our MRO networks and has reduced overall inspection time by more than 30% where it's been deployed. Pratt is integrating AI-powered engine inspection software to accelerate borescope analytics. Already in use on legacy programs, this capability is being implemented across our MRO networks and has reduced overall inspection time by more than 30% where it's been deployed. Pratt is integrating AI-powered engine inspection software to accelerate borescope analytics. AI-powered engine inspection software to accelerate borescope analytics. Already in use on legacy programs, this capability is being implemented across our MRO networks and has reduced overall inspection time by more than 30% where it's been deployed. Next is innovation and future growth. In Q3, we invested $2.8 billion in company and customer-funded research and development and CapEx to advance our technology roadmap and expand capacity. On the technology front, we're innovating to meet our customers' evolving needs.
15. +0.55%9:27ManagementWe're continuing to develop products with AI and machine learning capabilities. For example, Collins is leveraging AI in certain products to assist air traffic controllers in making faster and smarter decisions. And Raytheon has sensors deployed in the field that are using AI to identify objects and classify threats. Also in the quarter, Collins completed altitude testing of its next-generation enhanced power and cooling system. This is a new technology development system known as EPACS. EPACS delivers a significant increase in cooling capacity across critical aircraft systems and is being offered to support technology upgrades on the F-35. It can also be used on other future defense and commercial aircraft platforms.
16. +0.37%10:09ManagementAnd Raytheon is progressing its composable weapons strategy to address the evolving needs of our customers. This construct uses proven technologies from across our product portfolio as building blocks to develop new solutions that we can field at a faster rate. For example, we're developing a new effector where we're taking the rocket motor and steering control from one production program and combining it with the seeker from another program to cost-effectively meet a specific mission requirement on an accelerated timeline. On the capacity front, we continue to invest to support higher output levels. In the quarter, Raytheon completed a $50 million expansion of its manufacturing facility in Forest, Mississippi.
17. +0.37%10:54ManagementThis investment will support production ramps for the next generation jammer program and other radar systems. And in connection with the munitions contracts that I mentioned earlier, we're making incremental investments in our supply chain and operations to ramp capacity and support significantly higher production rates. On the commercial side, Collins announced a new partnership with Etihad Engineering to expand MRO services in the Middle East. This agreement will double Collins' footprint for nacelle services in the region. And support growing A350 and 787 fleets. And Pratt announced an expansion of precision parts manufacturing in Poland. This investment will increase capacity of complex component assembly for both commercial
18. +0.42%11:37Managementand military engines, including the GTF and F-135. And so we're pleased to see that our disciplined focus on our strategic priorities is delivering operational improvement and new capabilities for our customers. Finally, I want to acknowledge the leadership update we announced on the last week. We're also looking to expand our strategic priorities to the next generation of MROs. We're also looking to expand our strategic priorities to the next generation of MROs. We're also looking to expand our strategic priorities to the next generation of MROs. As you saw, Shane Eddy has decided to retire from the company after more than 40 years in the aerospace and defense industry. Shane's been a great partner and teammate, and I want to thank him for his leadership at Pratt. We're fortunate to have a very strong bench and are excited that Jill Albertelli is taking over as the president of Pratt & Whitney. Jill is currently the president of military engines and brings over three decades of experience across Pratt.
19. +0.34%12:20ManagementOkay, with that, I'll hand it over to Neil to take you through the third quarter. Okay, with that, I'll hand it over to Neil to take you through the third quarter. quarter results and our updated outlook in more detail. Neil? All right. Thanks, Chris. I'm on slide five. In the third quarter, adjusted sales of $25 billion were up 11% year-over-year on an adjusted basis and 12% organically. This strong top-line organic growth was driven by all three channels, with commercial OE up 10%, commercial aftermarket up 16%, and defense up 10%. Adjusted segment operating profit of $3.9 billion was up 39% year-over-year, driven by drop-through
20. -0.22%13:01Managementand higher sales volume across the company, improved productivity at Raytheon, and IEPA cost recovery. Segment margins expanded 310 basis points year-over-year, including the benefit of approximately 160 basis points from IEPA. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.26 was up 310 basis points year-over-year, including the benefit of approximately 160 basis points from IEPA. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.26 was up 310 basis points year-over-year, including the benefit of approximately 160 basis points from IEPA. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.26 was up 33% from the prior year, driven by about 43 cents of operational segment profit growth and approximately 25 cents of IEPA recovery. This growth more than offset roughly 12 cents of below-the-line items, primarily from an expected higher tax rate and lower pension income. On a gap basis,
21. -0.22%13:43Managementearnings per share from continuing operations was $1.89 and included 26 cents of acquisition accounting adjustments and 11 cents of restructuring and restructuring. Free cash flow in the quarter was $2.1 billion and included approximately $165 million of powder metal related compensation and approximately $300 million of IEPA recovery. As Chris mentioned, we converted four munition framework agreements into undefinitized contracts. Over the next several years, Raytheon will be focused on ramping the supply chain, our operations, and capacity to meet the associated production requirements. As a reminder, these contracts include a funding approach that will essentially
22. -0.40%14:28Managementpreserve upfront free cash flow. We'll be making CapEx and other investments on these contracts over the next two to three years, and we'll recognize revenue as costs are charged to the programs. Therefore, we expect to see sales and profit contributions over the next several years as we capacitize and then ramp to achieve full rate production over the multi-year terms of each contract. And over time, we'll be able to see the cost of each contract, and we'll be able to see the potential growth of each contract. These contracts have the potential to support margin expansion at Raytheon as we scale production. So overall, we delivered strong financial performance across RTX, and we're pleased with the significant growth in our backlog. Let's turn to slide six and I'll take
23. -0.35%15:07Managementyou through our updated outlook for the full year. Given our performance to date, as well as the IEPA recovery, we are increasing our full year outlook. On the top line, we're raising our full year adjusted sales outlook by 2 billion on the low end, and 1 and 1 1⁄2 billion on the high end. end and $1.5 billion on the high end to a new range of $97 to $97.5 billion, up from our prior range of $95 to $96 billion. The sales increase is driven by continued defense performance, commercial OE strength at Collins, and higher GTF aftermarket volume at Pratt. This translates to full-year RTX organic sales growth of between 10% and 11%, up from our prior range of between 8% and 9%.
24. -0.35%15:51ManagementBy channel, we now expect commercial OE sales to grow high single digits, which is at the higher end of our prior expectation of mid to high single digits, driven by the production ramp at Collins. Within commercial aftermarket, we now expect sales to grow low double digits to low teens across the company, which is up from our prior expectation of low double digits, driven by higher GTF aftermarket volume. And for defense sales, we now expect low double digit growth. Up from our prior range of high single digits, primarily driven by the performance at Raytheon. On the bottom line, we are increasing our outlook for adjusted earnings per share by $0.55 on the low end and $0.50 on the high end.
25. -0.35%16:35ManagementWe now see adjusted EPS of between $7.65 and $7.75 for the full year, up from our prior range of $7.10 to $7.25. At the midpoint of our updated outlook, we are increasing our outlook for adjusted earnings per share by $0.55. This increase is primarily driven by approximately $0.28 of performance across the company and approximately $0.25 of IEPA recovery. We've included the updated outlook for the associated below the line items in the appendix of our webcast. Finally, we now expect free cash flow to be between $9 billion and $9.2 billion for the full year, up from our prior range of $8.5 to $8.75 billion, driven primarily by IEPA recovery.
26. -0.43%17:20Managementlook beyond this year, based on the fundamentals of our company, our record backlog position, and operating momentum, we expect another year of top and bottom line growth, improving operational margins, and strong free cash flow generation. And as we do every year, we'll be back on our fourth quarter call in January with our detailed outlook for 2027. With that, I'll hand it over to Nathan to take you through the segments in more detail. Nathan? Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins on slide seven, sales were $8.4 billion in the quarter, up 10% on an adjusted basis and 12% organically, driven by strength across all channels.
27. -0.43%18:01ManagementExcluding divestitures, commercial low-e sales were up 23%, driven by higher volume on narrow-body and wide-body platforms. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 9%, driven by an 18% increase in mods. A 12% increase in provisioning and a 7% increase in parts and repair. Defense sales were up 7% versus the prior year, driven by higher volume across multiple programs. Adjusted operating profit of $1.8 billion was up $594 million versus the prior year, driven by drop-through on higher commercial volume, commercial mix,
28. -0.43%18:40Managementand approximately $250 million of IEPA recovery. In the quarter, Collins' sales were up 7% versus the prior year, driven by higher volume across multiple programs. Collin's expanded margins by 560 basis points year-over-year, including the benefit of structural cost actions and 300 basis points of IEPA recovery. Turning to Collins' full-year outlook, based on year-to-date commercial low-e performance, we now expect sales to grow high single digits on an adjusted basis versus our prior range of mid-to-high single digits. Organically, we now expect low double-digit growth versus our prior range of high single digits and a higher volume across multiple programs.
29. -0.43%19:16ManagementWe now expect growth between $925 and $975 million versus 2025, up from our prior expectation of between $550 and $625 million, driven by the drop-through on increased sales volume, ongoing structural cost reduction initiatives, and approximately $250 million of IEPA recovery. Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on slide 8, sales of $9.2 billion were up 10% on an adjusted and organic basis, driven by strength in commercial aftermarket. Commercial OE sales were down 5%,
30. -0.43%20:00Managementdriven by large commercial engine mix. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 21%, driven by higher MRO volume, primarily GTF. In military engines, sales were up 2%, driven by higher volume across multiple programs. Partially offset by the prior year benefit from F-135 contract award timing. Adjusted operating profit of $968 million was up $217 million versus the prior year, driven by drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket volume and approximately $160 million of IEPA recovery. This was partially offset by large commercial OE engine mix, commercial aftermarket mix, and higher SG&A expense.
31. -0.31%20:42ManagementThis was partially offset by large commercial OE engine mix, commercial aftermarket mix, and higher SG&A expense. In the quarter, Pratt's margins of 10.5% included 170 basis points of IEPA recovery. Turning to Pratt's full-year outlook, we continue to expect sales to grow high single digits on both an adjusted and organic basis, most likely towards the top half of this range, given the strength in commercial aftermarket. With respect to operating profit, we now expect growth between $475 and $525 million versus $2,000. We expect growth between $475 and $525 million versus $2,000. We expect growth between $475 and $350 million versus $3,675 million versus $2,000. We expect growth between $475 and $350 million versus $.
32. -0.31%21:27ManagementUp from our prior expectation of between $275 and $350 million, driven by the drop-through on increased sales volume and approximately $17o million of IEPA recovery. Turning Theratheon, on slide 9. Sales of $8 billion in this quarter, were up 14 percent on both an adjusted and organic basis, driven by higher volume on naval programs and land and air defense systems, including Patriot to Airsport and Air upgrade systems, to the Iraqi A3C classes and up data on large air defense systems, including Patriot ,Dan Standard Missile, and Tomahawk. Adjusted operating profit of $1.1 billion was up $275 million versus the prior year, driven by improved productivity, higher volume, and favorable mix, including
33. 0.00%22:04ManagementPatriot programs. Net productivity improved $104 million year-over-year and included approximately $85 million of benefits in the quarter associated with an international contract modification and a favorable adjustment related to an offset obligation. In the quarter, Raytheon expanded margins by 190 basis points year-over-year. Bookings in the quarter were $52.3 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill of $6.54 and a backlog of $130 billion. On a rolling 12-month basis, Raytheon's book-to-bill is $2.9. In addition to the munitions contracts that Chris mentioned earlier, Raytheon's book-to-bill is $2.9. In addition to the munitions contracts that Chris
34. 0.00%22:47Managementmentioned earlier, other key awards in the quarter included $3.1 billion to provide training systems for the British Army, $3 billion of classified awards, and $1.8 billion for SPY-6 production. Turning to Raytheon's full-year outlook, we now expect sales to grow low teens on both an adjusted and organic basis. This is up from our prior range of high single digits to low double digits due to the strength Neil mentioned. And we now expect operating profit to grow between $800 and $850 million versus 2025, up from our prior expectation of between $575
35. +0.15%23:27Managementand $650 million, driven by the drop-through on increased sales volume, improved productivity, and favorable program mix. With that, I'll hand it back over to Chris for some closing remarks. Okay, thanks, Nathan. We delivered another strong quarter of results and are confident in our updated full-year outlook, reflecting the growth of the book-to-bill. We're also confident in our continued execution across the company, and I want to thank all of our employees for their dedication to our mission. RTX is exceptionally well-positioned across commercial aerospace and defense, with our leading franchises, growing installed base, and record backlog. We remain focused on executing on our commitments, investing in the right technologies and capacity, and
36. +0.31%24:10Managementleveraging our breadth and scale to drive top and bottom-line growth this year and beyond. With that, let's open it up for questions.
37. +0.31%24:20OperatorIn the interest of time, and to allow for broader participation, you are asked to limit yourself to one question. To ask a question, you will need to press star 1-1 on your telephone. Our first question comes from the line of Sheila Cahayaglu of Jefferies. Your question, please, Sheila.
38. +0.31%24:41AnalystSure. Good morning, Chris, Neil, and Nathan. Good morning, Sheila. Good morning, guys. So, quarter up 14% organically, margins 14% was a standout as well. Obviously, one-timers in that margin number. You know, as we think about where you are today and the continuous margin improvement, can you talk about specifically Raytheon and where we are on the missiles and munitions ramp, as there are a number of additional UCAs in hand now, and how do you think about the volume and margin opportunity as that begins to feather in in 26 and thereafter?
39. +0.31%25:15ManagementYeah, thanks, Sheila. You know, as you noted, we're pretty pleased with Raytheon's organic sales growth here in the quarter, and even more so with the execution that underpinned. it. Output across our critical munitions was up over 90%. And we're seeing output growth across other critical munitions programs as well. So very happy with the operational performance the team is showing to ramp given the needs that are out there in the market. With respect to the conversion of the framework agreements to the UCAs, again, a lot of hard work went into that, a lot of collaboration with the Department of War. That's all in about $70 billion
40. +0.31%25:53Managementin combined value that provides Raytheon almost a decade of demand visibility. Obviously critical, not only for us, but for our supply chain as we seek to take these rates up anywhere from 2 to 4x. And these are binding contracts. They've got robust terms, including price, delivery schedules, and the like. And so now we've shifted into the execution phase, lining up the supply chain, putting up POs for tooling and test equipment, all the things we need to do to make that rateable. And we've also been working really closely with the department on all the actions necessary to accelerate the production. Streamlining test requirements, improving producibility where we
41. +0.38%26:36Managementcan, addressing obsolescence, qualifying new suppliers. In 2025 alone, Raytheon added 150 new suppliers. We've got to get that supply base as strong as we possibly can. And so right now, it's about just removing any and all bottlenecks so we can get to these higher rates. In terms of how this sort of works, I think it's going to be a lot of work. But I think it's going to be a lot of work. But I think it's going to be a lot of work. But I think it's going to be a lot of feathers in. And we're going to execute these contracts over the next, say, 7 to 10 years. And as Neil noted up front, we're going to account for these like other defense programs. You know, revenue will be on a cost-to-cost basis. And as we scale production and continue to drive the efficiencies, given the volumes here and given, you know, the visibility we've given the supply chain, we think these contracts have the potential to support margin expansion, you know,
42. +0.38%27:20Managementat Raytheon, you know, above and beyond where they are today.
43. +0.38%27:22AnalystThank you so much.
44. +0.38%27:28OperatorThank you. Our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird. Please go ahead, Peter.
45. +0.38%27:37AnalystHey, thanks. Morning, Chris and Neil. Nice results. Morning. Thank you. Hey, probably a question for both of you. But Chris, thinking about supporting all this growth tied to the framework deals and the aero ramp. But how are you thinking about like cash conversion? You had a strong raise for 26. Any puts and takes, you know, that we should be thinking about going forward from here just regarding either framework, CapEx or advances, any color here would be helpful. Thanks.
46. +0.23%28:03ManagementYeah, I'll start and certainly ask Neil to pile in as well, Peter. Again, if you just look at the fundamentals of this business, you know, they're pretty strong, robust demand, large installed base. So again, we think this supports our business being able to generate that 90 to 100% of free cash flow to adjusted net income. We've been pretty consistent in supporting that. So, you know, we're saying that and, you know, there will be investments associated with the UCA's and the demand that we're seeing. But they incorporate a collaborative funding approach to help with some of the upfront, you know, free cash flow. So again, for us right now, it's all about focusing on meeting this demand. We've got a $340 billion backlog.
47. +0.23%28:48ManagementGot to make sure that we've got the supply chain where it needs to be and the capacity, not only in our own shops, but again, with some of these key suppliers. And so that's where the focus is going to be. Yeah, Chris, maybe I'll add a couple of thoughts on, you know, some of the things that we've incurred in 26 and how they might play out as we start to turn the corner and look at 27. Not going to give a 27 outlook today for free cash flow. But, you know, as I sit back and think about the underpinning of the drivers, the first thing is we've obviously been tailing down on the powdered metal payments. So expect that to be probably about a $500 million tailwind as we head into the next year. And then as we head into 2027, you heard us talk this morning about the IEPA refunds.
48. +0.10%29:32ManagementSo we had about $300 million in cash come in in the third quarter. There's another $50 million that will come in in the fourth quarter. And then that will be largely behind us. So that will turn into a bit of a headwind. I'm thinking there's probably about $100 million of pension headwind as well. So all of that sort of nets to, you know, about zero. So you step back and you think about the underlying drivers of the business. Chris just talked about how the framework. The frameworks will play out, you know, largely a cash neutral event as we head into 27. So then it comes down to segment operating profit growth, which we're expecting to see. We're going to have operational expansion of the margins. So excluding the benefit that we just talked about from IEPA will still grow our margins.
49. +0.10%30:14ManagementAnd we're going to keep an eye on the need for probably a little bit higher working capital as we continue to support, you know, strong levels of organic sales growth. You saw, you know, we took. Our guidance up today added two points of organic growth of this year. You know, we've seen some working capital draw still seeing increased increased turns on inventory and working capital. But as we kind of position ourselves for the continued growth and delivering this $340 billion of backlog, I could see a little bit of headwind there. But all in all, expect cash flow to be up next year. You know, really well positioned about 70% of the way to our 2026 goal so far and still some work to do here in the in the fourth quarter. But feel good about where we sit. Today. Thank you. Appreciate the color. Appreciate the color. Thanks, guys.
50. +0.10%30:59ManagementYou bet.
51. +0.15%31:01OperatorThank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rob Stollard of Vertical Research. Please go ahead, Rob. Thanks too much. Good morning.
52. +0.15%31:12AnalystMorning, Rob. Chris, it's probably one for you. Obviously, the airlines are struggling with the higher cost of fuel at the moment. We've seen some of them pulling down their flight activity plans for the fourth quarter. I was wondering if you're seeing any change in behavior from your airline customers as a result of these challenges they're going through.
53. +0.15%31:34ManagementYeah, thanks, Rob. You know, you're right. We're closely engaging with the airlines and doing bottoms up sort of fleet planning and understanding kind of where their head is in 2027, the impact of the cost headwind that you just mentioned. Looking obviously at the consumer and the consumer health. But what we've seen is what you saw in our numbers here in Q3, which has been a lot of change. We've seen a lot of change. We've seen a lot of change. We've seen a lot of change. We've seen a lot of change. We've seen a lot of change. We've seen a lot of change. Resilient demand and a resilient, you know, consumer. I mean, we had 16 percent organic growth in commercial aftermarket in Q3. Our GTF PW11 output was up significantly, 35 percent year over year. And that demand is going to continue into next year and grow.
54. +0.15%32:16ManagementContent has continued to be strong on the V2500. And then, as you heard Nathan say up front, you know, Collins had continued organic growth across all three channels. with mods and upgrades and provisioning both up double digits. And we're also seeing, again, retirements that have been relatively low and in line with our expectations. So as we sit here today, Rob, demand has continued to be resilient. We think it's durable. And, again, we're going to watch all the other things, you know, that everyone else is watching as we kind of head into 27 on jet fuel and the other cost headwinds. But if you just step back for a minute, if you just kind of let your mind linger past some of these near-term issues,
55. +0.15%32:58ManagementI mean, there are really strong fundamentals that underpin our aftermarket growth. I mean, there's the auto warranty flight hours. There's pricing. There's a growing installed base. So we feel very good medium-long term about our commercial aftermarket positioning. That's great. Thanks, Chris.
56. +0.15%33:15OperatorThank you. Our next question comes from the line of Christine Liwag of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open, Christine.
57. +0.15%33:23AnalystHey, good morning, everyone. You know, maybe, Neil, you talked about with the munition contract that you've received with that $770 billion in multi-year contracts, you're seeing production rates increasing 2 to 4x over time. But, you know, these are just from the contracts that have converted into firm orders. But you've also got multiple framework agreements that have yet to convert to orders. When we think about the opportunity set that's ahead, including what you already got, how should we think about the cadence of revenue and earnings contribution? So we're going to have to think about that. So we're going to have to think about the cadence of revenue and growth.
58. +0.15%33:58ManagementSo we're going to have to think about the cadence of revenue and growth. So we're going to have to think about the cadence of revenue and growth.
59. +0.15%33:58AnalystIs this really more of an acceleration in 28 and beyond? Could we see some of this in 27? I know you don't want to give 27 guidance yet, but just help us understand how we should think about the cadence of revenue and growth.
60. +0.28%34:10ManagementSure. Thank you for the question, Christine. Good morning. So, you know, obviously there are a few variables here, the most important of which is, you know, how the defense budgets play out in the coming months. But, you know, nonetheless, we're very confident in the demand and need for these important munitions. So as you pointed out, we got two of the frameworks converted to undefinitized contracts in the third quarter. We had two more that came here in the fourth quarter. So those will be included in our fourth quarter bookings. And, you know, we've booked a little bit of revenue on this here in 26, and we certainly do expect some of that to, you know, ramp up in 27 as we begin to facilitize. But I think importantly, before I even, you know,
61. +0.28%34:54Managementget further on that, we got this enormous backlog to deliver. And so as I look at Raytheon's, you know, 2027 and beyond outlook, it shows very strong top line growth opportunity in its base backlog. And then you put this on top of it as well. And so we'll get into the specifics, as you pointed out today. But certainly I see this as, you know, starting to ramp, you know, over the next two years in earnest, and really continuing through 2030 when we get into full rate production for the suite of munitions that we'll be providing.
62. +0.13%35:35AnalystGreat. Thank you.
63. +0.13%35:37OperatorThanks.
64. +0.13%35:37AnalystYou're welcome.
65. +0.13%35:38OperatorOur next question comes from the line of Miles Walton of Wolf Research. Please go ahead, Miles. Thanks. Good morning.
66. +0.13%35:46AnalystLooking at the margin performance of Collins excluding the, you're nicely ahead of 18%. The implied performance. The implied poor key margins come back down to add or below where you were in the first half. I'm curious, you talked about the cost savings initiatives having impact. How sustainable are those? And maybe what should we be thinking of?
67. -0.08%36:15ManagementMiles? We lost you there, Miles. But from what we did hear, you were asking. We'll guess the question. We'll reframe the question as we like it. No, we heard the question on Collins. There you go.
68. -0.08%36:30AnalystThere you go. Go ahead. We hear you now. Great. And so I was just looking at the margin performance at Collins. Explain. So you're excluding Aipa. You're nicely above 18% in the quarter. It looks like four Q margin implied. You dropped back to mid 16. I'm just curious. Was there anything special about the quarter, which is interesting because you had very high OE rates and then maybe make a comment of the opportunity for expansion into 27 that Neil, I think you alluded to expansion across the business.
69. -0.08%36:58ManagementYeah. Well, obviously we're really pleased with where Collins operational margins were in the third quarter. And there really was nothing. I would call out that was particularly unusual about the third quarter. So it's good to see the traction that they're getting everything we've been talking about for the last five years, frankly, about higher OE production, getting good absorption. The aftermarket drop through the increased content on the installed base is coming to fruition. And we got good defense performance as well at really good margin. So the third quarter was strong and very clean. As we walk to the fourth quarter, you're right. We see a lot of good. We're seeing a little bit of pullback on the margins. And what I'll tell you there is there's a couple of things.
70. +0.10%37:40ManagementFirst, obviously, we won't have the IEPA refunds repeat for Collins. That's all behind us here in the third quarter. We are investing in that business. It's really important for us to make sure that we're prepared for next generation technology. And so we'll see a little bit higher research and development in the fourth quarter, as we usually do. But it's ramping a bit. We're also increasing our digital spend there. That's a key element of the transformation. We're seeing a lot of things that Collins is going through in terms of their reducing complexity, automating back office functions, et cetera. So that comes into play here in the fourth quarter. We do see a little bit higher OE volume in the fourth quarter.
71. +0.01%38:20ManagementProbably gives us about 40 basis points of margin, headwind, and a few other timing items. But fundamentally, the Collins margins remain really strong. And we expect the operational margins to continue to expand into 27. And we'll talk more about that. Obviously in January. Maybe just, Miles, to hit on one part of your question on sort of the sustainability on the structural cost reduction. I would tell you, and Collins will tell you, that we're in the relatively early stages of that. And we've continued to see some really good progress there. You heard Neil talk about some of those initiatives. It's consolidating operations, increasing cost at best cost locations, really attacking the overhead layers. And you saw sort of the overall cost of the infrastructure.
72. -0.26%39:04ManagementAnd you saw sort of the overall cost of the infrastructure. And you saw sort of the overall cost of the infrastructure. But that comes into play here. And again, that's kind of the indirect head count reduction that we referenced in our remarks. So these actions are going to continue to compound over time, and provide some, some nice tailwind to Collins margins. Thanks.
73. -0.26%39:19OperatorThank you. You're welcome. All right, next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein of Bank of America. Please go ahead, Ron.
74. -0.26%39:29AnalystHey. Good morning, guys. a quick follow on here to a couple of questions that were asked. On the UCAs, if they're not in that size, or you hope they will be, right? Political wins change and all that sort of stuff. How are you guys protected? Can you talk about that a little bit? Absolutely, Ron.
75. -0.26%39:57ManagementAnd I won't get into the detailed terms, but what I will say is that we are protected if there are changes in the budgetary environment and changes in volumes. That was a critical part of our discussions. We want to move out quickly and get to these rates. The department understood that, but was also cognizant of the fact that things could change in this budget environment and that we've got the protections we need to feel good about moving out on these investments. I will say, though, Ron, even with the budget risk that sort of sits out there, I do believe
76. +0.11%40:38Managementthat our critical munitions will be prioritized, no matter how the machinations ultimately shake out between is there going to be a reconciliation, what's in the base. I think these UCAs are a testament to how critical these munitions programs are and that they will continue to be prioritized as we go through the budget process. So, again, feel confident that we'll see these go through, but protected on the downside, just in case.
77. +0.21%41:04AnalystThank you, Ron. Thank you, Ron. Thank you. And then if I may, when we were walking around AUSA, one thing came up pretty much in every meeting we did, nobody can get printed circuit boards, and then people were having problems getting capacitors and resistors and this and that. So as you think about these ramps and just real fundamental components that are in short supply, some of it largely because of what's going on in the AI build out. How are you guys thinking about that? Right? I mean, I think we're going to see a lot of this sucking sound coming from a whole other side of industrials absorbing a lot of parts that you guys would normally use.
78. +0.21%41:42ManagementYeah, absolutely, Ron. You're hitting on the single biggest enabling factor in getting to these enhanced rates, the two to four X that I mentioned before. It's absolutely going to take a change in how we do things with our supply chain. You heard me mention up front some of the things we're doing differently in collaboration with the department in terms of streamlining. Yeah. Streamlining, test requirements, things that sit, generally speaking, within the department's purview. How do we be more efficient in how we do testing? How do we look at our requirements and really interrogate them to make sure that everything is absolutely necessary? And then how do we work with them to bring additional suppliers into the defense industrial base?
79. +0.02%42:25ManagementI mean, you're right. There are certain pieces that we are competing with other industries. You mentioned the AI build out. I mean, keep in mind, we're looking for a little bit different things than some of those. Yeah, absolutely. We're working with some of those folks, but working with the government to make sure that the folks that are producing the things that we need are prioritizing us, and we're not going to be left behind by virtue of AI build out or other things. I'll put critical minerals in that same category. These are things that are going to be important for both the commercial and defense, and we've been working those for a long time. The department's helped there as well in terms of helping us secure long-term supply to make sure that, you know, we're not going to be left behind.
80. -0.30%43:05ManagementThey're going to be looking for more new companies because we're trying to make sure that we've got what we need for 27 and beyond. So I'll just tell you that the supply chain focus is acute and it is where we're putting a lot of our energy, focus and investment.
81. -0.30%43:25OperatorGreat, thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Seth Seaford of JP Morgan. Your line is open, Seth.
82. -0.30%43:32ManagementThanks very much and good morning everyone. Thank you. You're welcome. All right.
83. -0.30%43:34AnalystAll right. Thank you.
84. -0.30%43:34ManagementThank you.
85. -0.30%43:35OperatorGood morning, Seth.
86. -0.30%43:37AnalystChris, I wanted to ask, when you think about the NDAA this year and the right to repair provisions that are in there, and you guys have a big defense portfolio, not just in Raytheon, but also in Pratt & Collins, how do you think about the potential impact of that on the company?
87. -0.17%44:01ManagementYeah, thanks, Seth. I won't speculate too much right now, as I know that legislative process is ongoing, and as you noted, the 27 budget isn't final. Again, we want to be supportive of our customers and their sustainment needs, but we're also going to need the kinds of protections around IP and protections around the investments that we've made, and to make sure that we can balance those needs and the lifestyle requirements. So, again, I think ultimately we'll get to the right place on this, and we'll see how it shakes out. Very good. Thank you.
88. -0.17%44:46OperatorThank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Dushla of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open, Scott.
89. -0.17%44:56ManagementHi, good morning. Neil, can you characterize where Pratt & Whitney's free cash flow conversion is today relative to its after-tax earnings, and then how you expect that to translate into the next year? So, this is a very exciting trend over the next few years. Thank you. Good morning, Scott. Thank you. Yeah, listen, as I look at Pratt, first of all, it's generating, you know, substantial cash flow in 26. It has been every year since the trough of COVID, so it's a very productive and cash flow-positive entity. Keep in mind, you know, about half of it is commercial engines, a quarter of it is military, a quarter of it is Pratt Canada.
90. -0.43%45:34ManagementWhat's great about, as we look forward, as you all know, we've made substantial investments in expanding our MRO capacity, getting our facilities put together for assembly of GTF engines. We expect that to continue as we continue to increase our volumes. But on the GTF aftermarket, we've been doing a number of overhauls that are pay at shop visit. And those full interval shop visits are coming due here this year and into the next several years. And each of those shop visits brings with it cash payments. So Pratt will be a tailwind to RTX's free cash flow over the next three years.
91. -1.17%46:15ManagementI'm not going to put a number on it today, but you've heard the kind of growth rates we've demonstrated over the last two years in the MRO output. We expect. You know, strong, you know, call it low double digit increases in shop visits as we go into 27 and beyond. And so with that will come the cash flow that we've we expect to return the investment on the GTF. Can you say what percent of GTF shop visits are pay at overhaul? So, you know, we've talked about the contracting landscape before and about 80 percent of the contracts for the GTF program. Are under a long term contract.
92. -1.17%46:59ManagementAnd I would say, you know, the vast majority of them are a pay at shop visit contract. And so, you know, the good news is, as you've looked at the results of RTX and Pratt, a key part of that over the last few years, we have generated substantial free cash flow. And we have at the same time made substantial investments in overhauls over the last few years. And so the contract asset has grown at Pratt. But over the next, you know, three to five years. We'll start to see that come down and generate tailwinds for the business. Thank you. Thank you.
93. -0.17%47:35OperatorThank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Godden of Citigroup. Please go ahead, John.
94. -0.17%47:43AnalystHey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I was hoping we could just stay on Pratt for a bit and maybe revisit margins. Obviously, modeling Pratt margins is a lot of moving parts. You had the IEPA. I'm just curious how you guys. Self-assessed performance recently. And when we look out to a world where aftermarket trends stay strong, as you described, AOGs are declining. How should we think about the shape of a margin breakout eventually? Any additional color would be helpful.
95. +0.26%48:15ManagementI'll start, John, and then I'll ask, you know, Neil to chime in. Look, when you think about Pratt and Pratt's, you know, margin expansion and performance, it does center around the GTX. You heard us talk earlier today about the MRO performance on the 1100 up 37% year over year. You know, turnaround time, you know, has come down, and that's with heavier shop visits. So, you know, really strong performance from an MRO perspective, which will help drive AOGs down here in the fourth quarter. And then it's really shifting, you know, to the GTX advantage and HS+. Those are going to be the two, you know, main.
96. +0.26%48:58ManagementYou know, we're going to be the main thrust behind, you know, margin expansion in our large commercial engine, you know, business. GTFA is in production today. As you know, we talked about its EIS with United earlier, so we're very pleased about that. We're taking a disciplined approach to that production cutover. You know, this configuration will get cut in over a period of several years to manage the risk. There's a large proportion of the bill of material that's common, but there's some that's unique. We want to make sure those are up at the right rate. We want to make sure those are up at the right rates as we cut that in. And then on HOP section plus, which, as you know, is effectively the derivative of the GTF advantage, you get 90 to 95% of the durability benefits in a kit.
97. +0.02%49:42ManagementWe're working with Airbus and regulators to finalize certification, and we anticipate it's going to be installed into MRO early next year. And we also expect that cut in to be more aggressive and faster than the one I just described on the GTF, you know, advantage. So. Again, it's really going to come down to continuing on the MRO output on GTF, and then the cutover on GTF advantage, and then the cutover on HS plus in our GTF shop visits. Chris, the only thing I would add, maybe to just put some numbers around what we're talking about here. We've talked about Pratt being entitled to low to mid-teens margins over the longer term.
98. -0.39%50:21ManagementAnd, you know, when I look at the performance of the business and the mix of installs and spare engines, the growing GTF aftermarket, the continued steady V2500 shop visit outlook that we have for the next several years, all of those things contribute to margin growth year over year through the next five years. It's going to be a gradual growth. But importantly, as I just talked about a few minutes ago, you know, it will come with, you know, significant cash flow tailwind as well as we convert, you know, these shop visits to paying. So the formula for margin expansion is in place.
99. +0.34%51:03ManagementYou know, we've got good traction on the aftermarket, on the pricing. And I think that the team is focused on the right things at Pratt and we need to drive that growth over the next several years. Thanks a lot, guys. You're welcome.
100. +0.34%51:21OperatorThank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Mekas of Milius. Your line is open, Scott.
101. +0.34%51:28ManagementChris, the company is generating. A lot of free cash flow and there's some sensitivity around stock buybacks for defense contractors. But earlier this year, we saw Northrop file to have its consent decree related to orbital APK acquisition, either waived or modified. The administration allows that to go through. Would you look at acquiring a solid rocket motor supplier to help you with the ramp on missiles? Yeah, thanks. Appreciate it, Scott. Again, I think when we look at our supply chain, we're looking at all our possible constraints. Constraints. We see constraints, as I mentioned earlier, in castings and we were investing in our own Asheville facility there.
102. -0.66%52:12ManagementWe see constraints in rocket motors, as you noted. I talked earlier about critical minerals. So we're always looking at whether or not we deploy capital to bring additional sources of supply in, in terms of qualifying new suppliers. And we're also always looking at places to deploy capital to bring certain suppliers in-house. If we feel like it's a major bottleneck on rocket motors in particular, I will tell you we're expanding the supply base in entering into partnerships with other solid rocket motor suppliers. Because I think that's just an area that we're just, you're never going to have enough suppliers there.
103. -0.66%52:50ManagementI think the demand is going to be, you know, incredibly high and we need to continue, you know, to spread that risk across a number of suppliers, which is why you've seen some of our announcements that we've made in terms of our partnerships with other rocket motor suppliers. So we're looking at that. I think that's a major bottleneck. I think that's a major bottleneck. I think that's a major bottleneck. I think that's a major bottleneck. I think that's a major bottleneck. And so we're looking at that. I think that's a major bottleneck. And so we're looking at that. I think that's a major bottleneck. And so we're looking at that. I think that's a major bottleneck. And so we're looking at that. I think that's a major bottleneck. And so we're looking at that. But I think, you know, that's a major problem with rocket motor suppliers. So, again, just stepping back, we're always looking at ways to shore up our supply chain. No immediate plans on rocket motors. Again, that's more of a partnership strategy, but always looking for ways to strengthen the base. Got it. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Matt Akers of B&P Paribas.
104. -0.50%53:20AnalystYour line is open, Matt. Matt, please make sure your line isn't open.
105. -0.50%53:24OperatorOur next question comes from the line of Matt Akers of BNP Paribas. Your line is open, Matt.
106. -0.50%53:31AnalystMatt, please make sure your line isn't open, is open. And if you're on a speakerphone, lift your handset.
107. -0.50%53:43OperatorWe'll go to the next question, which comes from the line of Gautam Khanna of TD Cohen. Gautam, your line is open.
108. -0.50%53:59AnalystYeah, good morning, guys. I was wondering if you could characterize Raytheon's foreign backlog, given all the orders on the U.S. side this quarter. And then also, if you could talk a little bit about, do the missile framework agreements, because they're for mature programs, do the profit rates on those approximate that of the foreign backlog? Is it a, should we view it as a substantial mixed tailwind over time? Thank you.
109. -0.49%54:29ManagementWell, on the last part of your question, Gautam, as I said earlier, as we continue to move into the production phase. And we start to see the efficiencies come from the higher volumes and from our supply base. Again, we think that these can support margin expansion at Raytheon. On the international side, again, continues to be a very strong portion of the Raytheon backlog. Our international bookings at Raytheon are up two and a half times year to date on a year over year basis. So that international demand continues to be very, very strong. And again, I know there's been some. There's been some overhang regarding questions on the budget and the like, but our international
110. -0.18%55:12Managementcustomers continue to have really strong demand for our product, whether that be Europe, MENA, Asia pack. So the demand internationally continues to be exceptionally robust. And just to put a finer point, sorry if I missed it, Chris, 37% of the total backlog is international. It's 52% if you exclude the munitions contracts, Tomahawk and Amram that we have. So that's a big part of the backlog. And then the other thing that we're seeing is that we're seeing a lot of demand for the international product. So that's a big part of the program that we added. So still very substantial. We booked $9 billion worth of international orders at Raytheon during the third quarter, a little overshadowed by the size of Tomahawk and Amram, but still really, really strong bookings. And we expect some more here in the fourth quarter. So just a little extra color there. Thank you.
111. -0.18%55:55AnalystYou're welcome.
112. -2.66%56:02OperatorThank you. The last question comes from the line of Ken Herbert of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead, Ken.
113. -2.66%56:12AnalystYeah, hi, good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in. As you look at the strong aftermarket growth in Pratt, you've obviously talked a lot about the GTF strength. How much of that growth was GTF, and can you give us any more update on what you're seeing on PW4, V25, and maybe Pratt Canada aftermarket in the quarter?
114. -2.66%56:32ManagementThanks, Ken. Listen, the majority of that growth came from the GTF aftermarket. We're still seeing really solid content on the V2500. So Q3 was lifted a little bit by particularly strong content on the V program. So a little bit of growth there as well. We see that actually slowing down in the fourth quarter, just on the mix of the inductions and the engines going through the shop. But as I said in the last call, we expected about 800 shop visits for 2026. We are right on track to that rate through the end of the third quarter. And we see no change to that outlook in the fourth quarter.
115. -1.08%57:14ManagementAnd frankly, I think we see that number of shop visit inductions pretty flat and consistent year over year with, again, increasing content on the V. But as we look at where we are today and the top line growth at Pratt, a lot of that's being driven off of our GTF program, which over time will far outweigh the structure decline in the V2500 powered aircraft.
116. -1.08%57:40AnalystThank you.
117. -1.08%57:42ManagementThank you.
118. -1.08%57:44OperatorThank you. With that, I will now turn the call back over to Nathan Ware.
119. -1.08%57:49ManagementAll right. Thank you, Lateef. That concludes today's call. As always, the investor relations team will be available for follow-up questions. Thank you all for joining us and have a good day. Take care, everybody.
120. -1.08%58:00OperatorThis now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.